Part: Part Four - Pot Odds & Hand Analysis
Reverse implied odds
Pre-flop
A button player opens to 600 and you defend the big blind with A♦5♦ - a suited ace, but a weak one.
Button opens to 600 (3 BB); you hold A♦5♦ in the BB. Best?
WhyCall. A suited ace defends fine from the big blind at this price. But keep in mind what it makes: top pair with a weak kicker - a hand prone to reverse implied odds.
What happensYou call. Heads-up to the flop. Pot: 1,300 (6.5 BB).
Flop
Flop: A♣ 9♠ 4♥ - you flop top pair, but with a five kicker. He c-bets.
Top pair, weak kicker, and he bets 800. Best?
WhyCall. Your weak ace is a textbook reverse-implied-odds hand: when you're ahead (he has a worse ace or a bluff) you win a little, but when you're behind (he has a better ace) you can lose a lot. Keep the pot small - don't build it with a hand that mostly gets action from better.
What happensYou call. Pot: 2,900 (14.5 BB).
Turn
Turn: J♦ - you pick up a backdoor flush draw, but he fires a big second barrel.
He bets 2,600 (13 BB) into a weak-kicker top pair. Best?
WhyFold. A big second barrel is exactly the pressure your hand can't handle: the better aces (A-K, A-Q, A-J) that just thrashed you keep betting, while the hands you beat give up. Paying off here is paying maximum precisely when you're beat - the essence of reverse implied odds.
What happensYou fold; he shows A-J for a better two pair. You lost the minimum.
A weak top pair wins small and loses big - so you controlled the pot and folded to real pressure instead of paying off the better aces. Reverse implied odds are why 'I have a pair' is not a reason to stack off.
Reverse implied odds: with a hand that wins small but loses big (a weak kicker, a low draw), keep the pot small and refuse to pay off when the action says you're beat.